Observations on Petroleum Product Supply (2004)

A Supplement to the NPC Reports:
U.S. Petroleum Product Supply — Inventory Dynamics, 1998, and
U.S. Petroleum Refining — Assuring the Adequacy and Affordability of Cleaner Fuels, 2000

This 2004 report responds to a request from the Secretary of Energy for the National Petroleum Council to provide advice on issues surrounding domestic refining capacity, product imports, and inventories.  The Secretary requested that the Council’s advice be provided on an expedited schedule.

The review of refining and inventory issues presents observations on petroleum product supply and an integrated response to the Secretary’s request for advice on both refining and inventory issues and is intended as an update and supplement to the 1998 and 2000 NPC reports on these subjects.  The report provides insights on petroleum market dynamics as well as advice on actions that can be taken by industry and government to ensure adequate and reliable supplies of petroleum products to meet the energy and environmental requirements of American consumers.  It includes the study’s interrelated refining and inventory analyses, which provide support for the report’s findings and recommendations.  Additionally, the report responds to the Secretary’s request that the Council reexamine its 1998 advice on lower operational inventory levels for crude oil and petroleum products.

Printed report: (96 pages) Price: $15.00

U.S. Petroleum Refining - Assuring the Adequacy and Affordability of Cleaner Fuels (2000)

The report assesses the industry’s ability to meet consumer demand for petroleum products, including the continuing viability of the U.S. refining industry.  The report analyzes the timing and size of the necessary refining and distribution investments to implement four changes in petroleum product specifications for which regulations have been issued or proposed:
  • Reducing the sulfur content of gasoline to 30 ppm average  
  • Reducing the sulfur content of on-highway diesel to 30 ppm average  
  • Reducing or eliminating MTBE from gasoline  
  • Reducing the Driveability Index of gasoline to 1200 degrees F

The report includes examinations of such factors as the state of development of process technology, refinery producibility, product delivery and testing considerations, and facility implementation requirements and capabilities. Appendices to the report include background material on refining and distribution, data on gasoline and diesel sulfur removal technologies, model results and methodologies, and details on construction scheduling and staffing.

Recommendations are made regarding petroleum product specification regulations issued or proposed as of June 2000. The recommendations specifically address very low sulfur gasoline and diesel requirements, driveability index, environmental permitting, and the flexibility of the petroleum distribution system. Other specific recommendations address regulatory basis, timing, and certainty.

Printed report: (Approximately 400 pages) Price:  $30.00

To order any of the above, download and return this Petroleum Refining Report order form.

U.S. Petroleum Refining - Meeting the Requirements for Cleaner Fuels and Refineries (1993)

This six-volume report examines the factors affecting the outlook for U.S. refining during the period 1991-2010.

  • Executive Summary is excerpted from Volume I and available separately. It presents the key conclusions, recommendations, and findings of the overall study.
  • Volume I, Analyses & Results, contains the report’s Executive Summary as well as five chapters presenting the study’s supporting analyses. It assesses the ability of the U.S. oil industry, both physically and economically, to manufacture and supply the quantity and quality of products required in the 1990s and beyond. The competitiveness of domestic versus foreign supplies is analyzed. The investment requirements and other costs associated with meeting the new environmental legislation and regulations on both refinery products and the refineries themselves are addressed. In particular, the requirements and consequences of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and other environmental, health, and safety initiatives, both current and prospective, are evaluated.
    • Chapter One presents an analysis of the financial condition of the industry with projections to the year 2010.
    • Chapter Two analyzes the cost to refineries, as stationary source facilities, of environmental, health, and safety programs.
    • Chapter Three analyzes supply, demand, and logistics under various scenarios. Topics include: demand variability, the availability of oxygenates, the world logistics system, and the cost of U.S. and foreign products supplied to U.S. markets.
    • Chapter Four analyzes the changes that will be required of the refining industry, along with their costs, to produce cleaner burning reformulated products.
    • Chapter Five presents the results of the NPC survey of U.S. and foreign refining, transportation, and oxygenate blending, which provide much of the baseline data for this study.
  • Volumes II through VI are Appendix Volumes that contain general information and the documentation of the analyses contained in Volume I.
    • Volume II, General Information Appendices, contains background information on Alternative Transportation Fuels; Environmental Legislation; History of U.S. Petroleum Supply, Demand, and Logistics, 1970-1992; History and Fundamentals of Refining Operations; and an Environmental Operations Primer.
    • Volume III, Financial & Facilities Appendices, contains detailed supporting data for the financial analysis; an analysis of the cost of complying with environmental, health, and safety regulations in refineries; and the Executive Summary of the Amoco/EPA Pollution Prevention Project report.
    • Volume IV, Supply, Demand, & Logistics Appendix, contains detailed data on demand development; the assumptions and results of the logistics modeling; oxygenate supply, demand, and costs; foreign environmental requirements; and cost/volume relationship of U.S. and foreign produced products.
    • Volume V, Refining Capability Appendix, contains data on the cost-effectiveness of producing reformulated gasoline and the assumptions and results of the U.S. refining capability modeling.
    • Volume VI, Survey Appendix, contains the forms used in the NPC’s survey and aggregate survey results for the U.S.

Executive Summary
(75 pages) Price: $ 5.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (7 MB).

Volume I - Analyses & Results
(500 pages) Price: $ 75.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (17.5 MB).

Volume II - General Information Appendices
(250 pages) Price: $ 50.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (15.8 MB).

Volume III - Financial & Facilities Appendices
(375 pages) Price: $ 75.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (7.8 MB).

Volume IV - Supply, Demand, & Logistics Appendix (in two parts)
(1,175 pages) Price: $125.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of Part I of the printed report (31 MB).

Click here to view/download a .pdf of Part II of the printed report (19.4 MB).

Volume V - Refining Capability Appendix
(525 pages) Price: $ 75.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (17.2 MB).

Volume VI - Survey Appendix
(300 pages) Price: $ 75.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (11.4 MB).

Printed report: Set of all of the above
(3,190 pages) Price: $450.00

U.S. Petroleum Refining (1986)

The report examines the factors affecting domestic refining in the 1985-1990 time frame and evaluates future refinery operations and the role of small regional refineries. The study includes an extensive data base on the operating capacities, process utilizations, crude oil charge, and product yields for the period January 1, 1984 through the end of 1988. The data base includes 181 refineries, which reported an operable capacity of 15,314 thousand barrels per day or 96 percent of the total U.S. refining capacity reported operable to the U.S. Energy Information Administration as of January 1, 1985.

The report also contains the results of two computer modeling studies of refinery operations. One analyzes the physical capabilities of the U.S. refining industry now and through 1990; the other analyzes the effects of changes in world product demand, product mix, and socioeconomic conditions on the domestic refining industry.

Printed report: (650 pages) Price: $55.00 

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (low-resolution version - 53.6 MB).

Refinery Flexibility (1980)

The report examines the historical trends and current status of the domestic refining industry’s sources of crude oil and its capability to process these crudes in response to the demands for essential petroleum products. In particular, it presents the following analyses: projections of U.S. and world petroleum supply/demand through 1990; the U.S. refining industry’s capability to process available crude oils and to meet product demand under a variety of supply/demand scenarios; the competitive economics of different sizes and types of refineries in the United States; and the relative economics of domestic and foreign export refineries when supplying petroleum products to the U.S. East Coast.

In 1979, the National Petroleum Council published Refinery Flexibility - An Interim Report, which contains the results of industry surveys analyzed in this report.

Printed report: (440 pages) Price: $27.50

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the printed report (36.1 MB).

updated 9/18/14